Journal of Applied Mathematics & Data Analytics

Journal of Applied Mathematics & Data Analytics

Modeling the Macroeconomic Determinants of Divorce: A Dynamic Panel GMM Approach for Iranian Provinces

Document Type : Research Article

Authors
Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran
Abstract
Divorce is a multi-stage process that affects both the relationships within a family and entangles the entire society in numerous problems. It is one of the fundamental harms and issues in society that causes the family unit to collapse. In recent years, divorce in Iran has been sharply increasing. This phenomenon significantly impacts the family and society. While economic factors are not the sole cause of divorce, they provide the groundwork for its occurrence. The effective economic factors include inflation, unemployment, per capita income, and the Gini coefficient or unequal distribution of per capita income. This study aims to investigate the economic roots of divorce in Iran. The present study investigates the economic roots of divorce in the provinces of Iran using a dynamic panel data model and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) over the period 2008–2018. The estimation results of the research model have shown that unemployment, inflation, and the Gini coefficient as an indicator of income inequality have an increasing effect on divorce, while an increase in per capita income has led to a decrease in divorce. Considering the increasing effects of unemployment, inflation, and income inequality on divorce, as well as the decreasing effect of per capita income on this social phenomenon, it is suggested to implement policies that strengthen economic growth, leading to higher per capita income and lower unemployment and inflation rates. Additionally, income redistribution policies, such as improving the tax system and the proper targeting of subsidies, should be employed to facilitate a reduction in divorce within Iranian society.
Keywords

Volume 2, Issue 1
May 2026
Pages 48-59

  • Receive Date 06 May 2026
  • Accept Date 16 May 2026
  • Publish Date 01 May 2026